BY RAJAN NARAYAN

The ministers in the Chief Minister’s cabinet do not serve at his pleasure. The CM continues to occupy the chief minister’s chair at the whim of his cabinet colleagues - a case of the tails wagging the dog.

BIOLOGICALLY, IT is the dog which wags its tail. But in politics, particularly in the parliamentary system of democracy, more often than not it is the tail or tails which wag the dog. In a parliamentary democracy, the prime minister or the chief minister is normally the leader of the legislative party and has the support of the majority of the elected legislators of his own party. When no single party has an absolute majority, the leader of the group which has the support of the majority is elected the leader of the legislative party and is invited to form the government. In the case of Goa, in the Legislative Assembly elections, the Indian National Congress secured 16 seats and the Bharatiya Janata Party secured 14. Of the remaining 10 seats, two went to the SGF - that of Churchill Alemao who defeated Luizinho Faleiro and Reginaldo Lourenco who defeated senior Congress leader, Francisco Sardinha in Curtorim.

PAWAR-GIRI

THREE seats were won by the NCP — the Benaulim seat, which was won by a very narrow margin by Mickky Pacheco, the Vasco seat which was won by Jose Philip D’Souza and the Tivim seat, which was won by Nilkant Halarnkar. The MGP won the two seats, held by Dhavlikar brothers, Sudin and Deepak. Babush Monserrate, at the last moment changed his mind about contesting as a Congress or UGDP candidate and won the seat as an independent. Vishwajit Rane was denied a ticket by the Congress party. He contested and won the Valpoi seat as an independent.

After the elections results were out, in the hectic lobbying to form the government, the three member NCP group, the two member MGP group and the independent MLAs Babush Monserrate and Vishwajit Rane decided to extend support to the Congress to form the government. But the choice of Ravi Naik by the Congress High Command did not meet with the approval of either the Dhavlikar brothers or the Yuvraj Vishwajit Rane. Indeed, the Dhavlikar brothers and Vishwajit Rane threatened to withdraw support to the Congress if it stuck to its decision to impose Ravi Naik as the leader of the Congress Legislative Party and, by corollary, the candidate for the post of chief minister.

YUVRAJ TANTRUMS

NOT surprisingly, Vishwajit Rane, who had been running a parallel government whenever his father Pratapsingh Raoji Rane was the chief minister, insisted that his support to the Congress would be conditioned on papa being made the chief minister. The Congress High Command was, however, not very keen on making senior Rane the chief minister of a coalition government as his style of functioning might alienate the coalition partners. Senior Rane himself backed out of the race to be chief minister when it was made clear to him that if he became chief minister, there would be no question of his son Vishwajit being accommodated in the cabinet on the principle that two members of the same family could not be members of the cabinet.

To resolve the stalemate, the special team of High Command observers comprising Sushilkumar Shinde and Priyaranjandas Munshi asked senior Rane to nominate a candidate for the chief minister’s post who would be acceptable not only to him but the coalition partners. It was Pratpasingh Raoji Rane who reportedly recommended the name of Digamber Kamat, the former confidant of Manohar Parrikar who had switched sides, for the post of chief minister. So, Digamber Kamat became the chief minister, not because either the Congress High Command or the Congress Low Command considered him the most suitable candidate for the post, but because he was the only one among the senior Congress leaders who was acceptable to Pratapsingh Rane and, more importantly, to his son Vishwajit Rane.

NO DISCRETION

IN the normal course in a parliamentary democracy, the chief minister has absolute discretion on choosing his team and deciding who will become members of his cabinet. Given the circumstances under which Digamber Kamat became the chief minister, he had no choice but to accommodate five members of the group of seven supporting him as cabinet ministers. He was also compelled to give the coveted portfolio of PWD to Sudin Dhavlikar of the MGP. This caused much bitterness and ill feeling within the Congress Legislative Party. The group of seven who had agreed to extend support to Digamber Kamat were also equally unhappy that two of the group — Deepak Dhavlikar of the MGP and Nilkant Halarnkar of the NCP — were not accommodated in the cabinet.

To strengthen the Congress Legislative Party and to counter Babush Monserrate and Vishwajit Rane, Digamber Kamat wooed the Save Goa Front MLAs, Churchill Alemao and Reginald Lourenco, whose induction into the Congress would increase the strength of the Congress party from the original 16 seats it won in the elections to 18. Digamber Kamat calculated that with the additional support of the three NCP candidates, he would be much less vulnerable to blackmail and toppling by Vishwajit and Babush. But to accommodate Churchill, Digamber Kamat had to sacrifice Sudin Dhavlikar as Alemao insisted on the PWD portfolio as a condition for merging the SGF with the Congress. This did not please the dissidents within the Congress such as Agnelo Fernandes, Francis Silveira, Victoria Fernandes and Mauvin Godinho, who became bitter that berths in the cabinet and prized portfolios were given to non-Congressmen.

Meanwhile, NCP president Sharad Pawar, the master strategist decided to woo Vishwajit Rane, who had developed a very strong electoral base in the two talukas of Sattari and Bicholim, which together account for five constituencies. A pact was entered into between Sharad Pawar and Vishwajit Rane, whereby it was decided that the Junior Rane would support the NCP group in the Legislative Assembly. The Dhavlikars have always been close to the Rane family, having been the traditional bhatjis of the family. So when Sudhin Dhavlikar was dropped from the cabinet to accommodate Churchill Alemao, there was a fresh revolt against the Digamber Kamat government. A revolt which had the tacit support of several dissident Congress MLAs who believed that they had not got their due share of the fishes and loaves of office. To appease Vishwajit Rane and company, Digamber Kamat was compelled to drop senior Congress leader and then finance minister Dayanand Navekar to accommodate Sudin Dhavlikar as transport minister.

LATEST REVOLTS

THE latest revolts against the Digamber Kamat have ironically been for the same reasons that had made Dayanand Narvekar, the former finance minister, extremely unpopular with his cabinet colleagues and the coalition group supporting the Digamber Kamat government. Digamber Kamat very quickly bankrupted the treasury because he could not resist or say no to even the most outrageous demands of his cabinet colleagues. Such as Churchill Alemao’s demand for building not one bridge, but three new bridges in his constituency. And similar demands by Vishwajit Rane who wanted large amounts of funds to ostensibly strengthen the infrastructure for medicare in the state but actually was more interested in the kickbacks that mega projects would provide him.

Virtually every member of the cabinet also prevailed upon Digamber Kamat to form new corporations such as the Education Corporation and the Medical Services Corporation, which would not only help them help themselves to a greater share of the loot and plunder, but would also allow them to bypass any constraints or restrictions that the new Regional Plan 2021 might place on them. The funds available with the Finance Minister are not infinite. Moreover, in his anxiety to appease every one and not antagonise anyone, Digamber Kamat had virtually abandoned the additional resource mobilisation measures he had announced in his budget in 2009 which had envisaged a levy on mining rejects and a professional tax, which would have fetched an additional Rs. 800 crore as revenue.

So much so, by the middle of the financial year 2009-10 the CM discovered there was no money in the kitty. Which resulted not only in a freeze on new projects, but delay even in funding existing projects, angering almost every cabinet colleague. Babush Monserrate was furious because the CM refused to or was unable to release funds for the cyberage scheme. Churchill Alemao was annoyed because the government did not or could not release the funds for various PWD projects he had undertaken and even tendered. most of which were intended to cater to the Navelim constituency. Similarly, additional demand for funds from Vishwajit and some of the others were also being stalled.

Without money for existing projects or new projects, the honourable or dishonourable mantris could not keep the people of their constituency happy. Far worse, their own fortunes were affected as, with funding for projects at a standstill, there would be no kickbacks. Among the worst affected was the PWD as contractors who had not been paid for months decided not to respond to tender for new projects. Even when the funds were finally released, Churchill Alemao’s cabinet colleagues were upset because of his insistence that contractors in the Navelim constituency should be paid first, leaving his cabinet colleagues and other MLAs supporting the government in a soup. The recent demands for a change in leadership have been primarily triggered by Digamber Kamat’s mismanagement of the scarce financial resources of the state and its inability to instill even a modicum of financial discipline.

COMMON GROUSE

THE group of seven, which had virtually disintegrated following the merger of the SGF with the Congress and differences between Babush Monserrate and Vishwajit Rane, was revived because of the common grouse about the CM not releasing enough funds for the duo’s pet projects. Some members of the NCP, particularly Mickky Pacheco, declared war against Digamber Kamat and Ravi Naik for the sharp deterioration in the law and order situation, particularly the attacks on foreign tourists which had an adverse effect on charter tourists. The Dhavlikar brothers were unhappy because they became aware that the Congress High Command may ask Digamber kamat to drop Sudin Dhavlikar from the cabinet because of his association with the Sanatan Sanstha.

Babush Monserrate became apprehensive that he would also be dropped from the cabinet after he was charge-sheeted in the Panaji police station attack case, citing the precedent of Dayanand Narvekar, who had been dropped to accommodate Sudin Dhavlikar citing his being charge-sheeted in the cricket ticket scam case. The group of seven also got wind of the fact that Digamber Kamat had been given the green signal to drop Sudin Dhavlikar and Babush Monserrate from the cabinet to facilitate the return of Dayanand Narvekar and Pandurang Madkaikar into the cabinet.

LEADERSHIP CHANGE

CONTRARY to the vehement denials of Chief Minister Digamber Kamat, there was a demand for a change in the leadership of the Congress Legislative Party and, as a corollary, in the chief minister’s position. The Congress High Command had apparently agreed to consider the demand for a change of leadership. Unlike in the past, Pratapsingh Rane told the High Command that he was willing to assume the chief minister’s post if he was offered the same by the Congress High Command. The ever greedy and ambitious Churchill Alemao also threw his hat into the ring. Congress President Sonia Gandhi, after consultation with her confidants like Ahmed Patil, had apparently given the green signal for replacing Digamber Kamat and installing Pratapsingh Rane as the chief minister yet once again. With one caveat that if Pratapsingh Rane was made the chief minister, Vishwajit Rane would have to vacate the cabinet, consistent with the principle that two members of a family cannot be members of the cabinet. Both father and son, Pratapsingh Rane and Vishwajit, lost their enthusiasm for a change in leadership as the son, who has become politically more powerful than the father, was not willing to pay the price of vacating the cabinet to facilitate the father becoming chief minister.

Digamber Kamat, having survived the crisis, decided to strike back. He secured clearance from the Congress High Command to drop Sudin Dhavlikar and Babush Monserrate from the cabinet. Simultaneously, Digamber Kamat mended fences with the politically savvy Dayanand Narvekar, who had been trying to foment and aggravate the revolt within the Congress against Digamber Kamat. But Vishwajit Rane, having been unable to persuade the Congress High Command to retain him in the cabinet even after a change of leadership in favour of his father, decided that it would not be in the interest of the Rane parivar that Dhavlikar should be dropped.

Which is why the swearing in of Madkaikar in place of Sudin Dhavlikar as the Transport Minister was aborted. Pratapsingh Raoji Rane, who can destabalise Digamber Kamat by disqualifying Churchill Alemao and Reginald Lourenco apparently used his clout at the Centre to abort the reshuffle in the cabinet. It is not a coincidence that Vishwajit Rane rushed to meet Chief Minister Digamber Kamat even as the Raj Bhavan was making the arrangements for the swearing in of Pandurang Madkaikar. The NCP also decided that it was in its best interest that the status quo be maintained. So Sharad Pawar is reported to have also spoken to Sonia Gandhi to abort the planned reshuffle.

SWEARING-IN ABORTED

IT is significant that the group of seven met NCP President Sharad Pawar in Mumbai on Sunday to declare that they were together. Significantly, while they claimed that they supported the Digamber Kamat government, in the same, breath the statements said that change in leadership in the Congress Legislative Party was an internal matter of the Congress High Command. But nobody can fail to see the implied threat. The threat being that if any member of the group of seven was sought to be dropped by Digamber Kamat, the group as a whole would revolt against the government. A threat which Digamber Kamat dare not ignore because minus the group of seven, his government will not be able to pass the budget. And the convention is that if a ruling party or group is defeated on the floor of the house on any financial bill, it is required to resign.

In conclusion, let us look at the arithmetic which will make it clear that it is the tails comprising the group of eight, inclusive of Speaker Pratapsingh Rane, who are wagging the dog. In theory, ministers serve at the pleasure of the chief minister. In the case of Digamber Kamat, his continuance as chief minister depends on the pleasure or displeasure of the group of seven which has been strengthened with the support of the Speaker Pratapsingh Rane.

SEAT ARITHMETIC

INCLUSIVE of the group of seven, the Congress — including the questionably merged SGF — has a strength of 25 MLAs in the 40 member house. Since the Speaker Pratapsingh Raoji Rane cannot vote unless there is a tie, the actual strength of the Congress, including the SGF (who are liable for disqualification), is 24. So much so, the Digamber Kamat government needs the continued support of the group of seven to survive. Even if Vishwajit Rane, by himself, is willing to support the government it would not be enough unless the three member NCP group also support the government during the budget session. For all practical purposes, the NCP is now a group of four with Vishwajit Rane having entered into a not so secret pact with Sharad Pawar. In fact the NCP can even be considered a group of five as Papa is also now with the NCP. And Vishwajit, being a shrewd operator, does not want to be dependent entirely on the NCP. Which is why he is making sure that he continues to have the support of the Dhavlikar brothers as, with them, it becomes a group of three. The new realignment could pose a threat to Churchill Alemao, who is the most dispensable of the troublesome and irritating colleagues of Digamber Kamat. The tail is now so strong that the dog has no choice but to dance or act as dictated by the tail — or should we say tails?